(This chain of thoughts was shared on Twitter on the night of 08 Oct 2023 and chronicles events / observations as on that date and time)
Folks, sharing some thoughts about the ongoing events in Israel. Let’s see how it goes ..
But first, let me take you 50 years back – to 06 Oct 1973.
That day, sometime in afternoon, the Egyptians executed a brilliant crossing of the Suez Canal and rushed ahead into the Sinai Peninsula that was theirs till 1967. At the same time, Syrians too attacked Israel from North.
As for the Israelis, they were caught with utter and complete surprise. Add to it the fact that it was the Yom Kippur Day, most of them were actually celebrating the festival at homes when Egypt and Syria crossed into Israel in a feat of military brilliance.
Not just was the Israeli intelligence caught napping, but the aggressors’ planning too reflected sheer brilliance. The very survival of Israel was on very shaky legs for quite some time, before they regrouped and halted the aggressions in their North and South.
The Yom Kippur War ended in a ceasefire on 23 Oct 1973 and Israel ultimately withdrew from Sinai a few years after that. I did a short, ten-tweet long thread on the 50th anniversary of that war this Friday. May have a look before moving ahead:
Moving on, THIS 👇 was the question I asked at the end of that particular thread.
I guess we know the answer by now, especially with the benefit of the events over the past 40 hours or so.
Exactly 50 years and one day after that audacious Egypt + Syria attack of 1973, Hamas entered Israel from the Ghaza Strip again. As of right now, Israel has declared war for the first time since 1973; such is the magnitude of devastation caused by the Hamas.
I don’t intend going into the morality part, or the right/wrong of what Hamas did or what Israel is doing/will do. I shared my views on that earlier today via this tweet. This applies equally to both sides, I’d say, and recent events corroborate that.
What I intend to do is to make a sense of ‘what’ and ‘why’ of this latest incident between Israel and Palestine.
Firstly, it should be looked at with respect to happenings in a geography much much beyond the Middle-East, i.e. Ukraine.
Just see the major countries supporting Hamas vs those supporting Israel. A bulk of them are to be found on opposite sides of the Ukraine War as well. Take that for what it’s worth, but I will also add something that happened in a different continent not very long ago.
Remember the recent coup in Niger?
Remember the fact that France didn’t want to accept the coup but was forced to, along with paying market prices for Niger’s resources?
Also, remember the appearance of the Russian Wagner Group there to ‘help’ Niger?
Noticed Russia NOT coming out in favour of Israel, but instead, giving out a statement which can be termed neutral at best?
Well, I personally am of the firm belief that these are just the latest fronts opened up against the collective West as a continuation of the Ukraine War.
One moment of silence for Zelensky and Ukraine might be in order, because regardless of the intricacies and monkey-balancing by the US Administration, fact remains that aid to Israel WILL come at the cost of aid to Ukraine, be it monetary or military aid.
Before moving ahead, let me just once again put out a disclaimer that what I write in this thread is purely my opinion based on my own reading of events! Take it or leave it; I am totally fine with what what the random strangers on Twitter think of my chain of thoughts!
Moving on, the world is clearly divided into ‘With them or Against Them’ camps, atleast with respect to this Israel-Palestine thing. Even India that has remained mostly neutral on the Ukraine issue has come out strongly in support of Israel, with PM himself tweeting about it.
Interestingly, India and Russia seem to be in different camps atleast as far as this issue is concerned. Equally interestingly, India and the entire Middle East seem to be in different camps as well.
Well, there are many different ways to look at it, but PM Modi’s tweet and the way it is worded, might offer some clues. I’ll just leave it at that. What is even more interesting is that China has remained studiously silent on this escalation in the Middle East!
What has happened is that with the opening of yet another front in the proxy war between Russia and USA, this time it is the USA which I believe will get stretched more.
With their own economy facing severe challenges, it might not be the best time for USA to have another military conflict to handle, but then, they no longer have a choice in that matter. That said, a $6Bn package to Iran not so long ago does raise some very interesting questions!
What happens next in this interplay of big powers will be a really interesting thing to watch.
Sad as the massive loss of lives in the immediate battlezone might be, there are much larger things at stake.
The world order as it obtained till not very long ago, was a result of two world wars and a failed League of Nations. It saw a wobble when the USSR disintegrated and the geopolitical vacuum was filled up by the collective West. Now, with Russia on the ascendant, along with China and an India that is also rapidly enhancing its clout, there are multiple challengers to the world order that has existed for the past 30+ years.
These are challengers that will work individually, as well as collectively when it suits them, in order to carve out a geopolitical space for themselves in the coming days and years. To think that there won’t be bloodshed would be foolish.
In fact, like it or not, there will be a LOT of blood that will be shed in the coming days and years. This was one of my first reactions on the Israel-Hamas fight that is currently on.
As I said, this is indeed just the beginning.
Or perhaps the beginning was in Feb 2022 when the first Russian soldier entered Ukraine?
This is what I wrote as my first chain of thoughts on the war, about a week after it began.
I’d like to repeat the BRACE YOURSELVES phrase here all over again, btw.
What comes next is anybody’s guess.
Will attacks on Israel intensify?
In fact, I believe Hezbollah too have opened up the Lebanon front already.
Will Israel’s retaliatory actions include kinetic attacks on Iran?
Does Israel even have the capability to strike Iran?
Will the USA go kinetic against Iran?
What happens to oil supplies and by association, oil prices if the Persian Gulf route is disrupted?
With the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves at an all time low, how much escalation suits them?
Lastly, is it the death of OPEC and their privilege of being the sole arbiters of oil prices? Will Russia now get a greater say in the same, ‘caps’ on Russian oil prices notwithstanding? And what about the Saudi-Israel ‘warming-up’?
Quite an interesting bunch of questions, no?
As far as answers go, all I can say is .. well .. we will need to Wait and Watch!
So, instead of looking for answers for the questions I listed above, let me try and offer some opinions on how this ongoing war between Israel and Hamas / Hezbollah might pan out.
It is a no-brainer that the Israelis got caught by absolute and complete surprise. It is also a fair call that the Hamas attacks were planned in great detail, including capture of hostages. That is also the reason I believe that Israeli casualties might even top the figure of 1000 by the time the dust settles.
That said, it is also true that by the sheer numbers horrific visuals that Hamas and others in Ghaza let loose on social media, Israel has got a full pass to react with as much violence, if not more.
Quite understandably, they have declared war. Not that they had a choice.
Also left unsaid, is the part where the question of With us or against us? by Tel Aviv has been mostly answered by most countries in clear and unambiguous terms.
This was the only possible option left for Israel – to go all out, and with extreme violence. I am holding myself from using the word indiscriminate before the word violence, but that is how Israeli response WILL get painted, rightly or wrongly.
Already, the usual suspects are crying buckets of tears at the destruction that has befallen Gaza within a few hours of Israeli response. However, the visuals of the same Gazans gleefully celebrating Israeli deaths, makes their case a bit difficult to defend.
Mind you, I am saying this from a neutral point of view, without going into the right or wrong of it.
As far as Israeli prisoners in custody of Hamas are concerned, there is a good chance that they will be used as a bargaining chip. But there are two issues related to that – firstly, bargains can only happen once guns stop shooting, even if temporarily.
Secondly, and more importantly, concessions by Israel will set a precedence whereby Israeli citizens kidnapped / captured through various means will become a norm.
To be fair, Israel has bargained with Hezbollah in return for its soldiers in the past, but this time the sheer numbers of Israeli captives will make any bargain deals that much more complicated. Hamas would want to extract concessions which Israel may be unwilling to give.
Thus, sad as it is to even type it out, I believe that a majority of Israeli captives may not make it back to their homes alive. The passions and anger on both sides of this war will make it extremely difficult for them to get back to their loved ones, if not impossible.
What will happen in return is the deaths of hundreds, if not thousands, of Palestinians in Gaza / West Bank. Israeli aircraft are already in the air over Gaza, their Navy has tightened the cordon on the seas and the Army is getting their men, women and equipment there as well.
Gas and electricity supplies to Gaza are already cut-off.
And more punitive measures from Israel must already be on their way.
It is not to say that it would be smooth sailing all the way for Israel either, but their intent is absolutely clear – RETRIBUTION.
Of course, it will lead to visuals that will only add further to the crying ‘liberals’ who champion the cause of Palestine day in and day out. But given the Israeli anger as well as the initial visuals of barbarism by Hamas fellows, I doubt Israelis would be very perturbed by it.
Also, this retribution by Israel will continue for atleast a few weeks, if not months, in varying intensity. But at that same time, once the immediate anger within Israel subsides, there will be uncomfortable questions that the Govt of the day will need to answer about the massive intel failure wherein they failed to see the planning and build-up for such a complex operation that would have taken months to prepare for.
Also coming soon would be questions about the condition of captured Israeli citizens, esp since Hamas wouldn’t let go of the excellent bargaining chip that they are.
All said and done, I expect the Israeli military response to be ruthless and devastating, but at the same time, I also see great political changes coming by in Israel over the next one year, as a direct result of this attack.
The entire Middle-East too will be ‘hot’ for the foreseeable future as well, especially with a hyper-charged populace that has seen the great ‘successes’ of Hamas and will now see the great ‘suffering’ of Palestinians due to Israeli retribution. There already has been atleast one reported case of murder of two Israeli tourists in Egypt.
Dare I say, this is not the last attack on Israelis or Israeli interests after the latest escalation.
As I close this thread, let me talk a bit about Indian interests and impact on India.
First and foremost, the IMEEC project might get a bit delayed, but in the long run, it will become a reality. Feel free to disagree.
Next is the case of Bhikharistan that lies to our immediate West. There already are reports of widespread orgasms in Bhikharistani populace who are once again fantasizing about similar attacks on India as well, just like this joker below.
Why I chose this particular joker from amongst the hundreds such orgasming Paakis is the fact that his Twitter Bio claims that he is Chairman National Peace Committee for interfaith Harmony!!
Irony just strapped a suicide bomb and blew itself, btw! 😂
But what will Pakistan do?
Of course, knowing their true nature, they won’t hesitate in orchestrating a similar incident in Kashmir, or even in other parts of India. But they are also quite well aware of the repercussions, given the experiences post Uri and Pulwama attacks.
However, and more interestingly, what would they do in a HYPOTHETICAL situation of a US-Iran shooting match?
Now THAT would be a show I would be willing to buy a ticket for!
Yet, within our own borders too, communal situations might develop in the coming days, thanks to the increased passions in the immediate aftermath of this Hamas attack on Israel and the retaliation thereto. This assumes greater criticality since the Nation is gearing up for the next General Election in less than 5 months from now.
While external fallouts of the Israel-Hamas conflict can be managed by various means, it is the internal challenges that need a more serious look, esp in the short term. THIS is what most directly affects you and me in a very short time frame, and hence, merits the greatest attention.
In the end, all I will say is that the Kaal Chakra keeps moving unimpeded, regardless of war or peace in the world. Just look at the national borders in the Middle-East. All of them are UNNATURAL, straight lines, including for Israel and Palestine. I’ll not say much beyond that.
Millions of people died in wars in just the first 50 years of the last century. Compared to them, our era has hardly seen any bloodshed.
Dare I say, it might be about to change.
So as I mentioned in the beginning of this thread, BRACE YOURSELVES for whatever lies ahead.
Oh, and I’ll just leave this little conspiracy theory here in this end of this thread. Take it For What It’s Worth!
:End of Blog Post:
Harpreet's Blog 